Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Conservative update

Item one: From Dick Morris:

"Republicans are getting depressed under an avalanche of polling suggesting that an Obama victory is in the offing. They, in fact, suggest no such thing!"

Using an exclamation point, Mr. Morris, in the first paragraph of a serious political opinion piece suggests your argument is in big trouble!

Item two: A quote I fielded from Chip Elliott:

"I do not think romney is a cure. it was the stupidest most atavistic thing true party republicans could have done. they ran a 'country-club republican' at a time when three of my favorite tablecloth restaurants have gone under ... "

Italics and capitalization also per author.

Item three:

Mike Rowe will be in the Cleveland area today stumping with Mitt Romney. Rowe was the ... um ... subject of my inaugural Rainy Day Woman column in the now defunct Free Times. An Open Letter to Mike Rowe ran on September 27, 2006. I'm going to keep the party polite, so you'll have to click the link to read what I said to Mr. Rowe.

A singular opportunity indeed.

* * *


VM said...

Damn, Erin. I read what you wrote about Mr. Rowe, and, well, let's just say I hope I don't have to stand up for the next few minutes or so.

jo said...

I too had a variety of dirty jobs for Mike Rowe. But he's really doing the dirtiest one of all now. And I don't wanna get any on me.

Anonymous said...

Buzzfeed 9/25/12


Republicans have taken their complaints about media polls allegedly favoring Democrats a step further this morning, embracing an obscure new polling website that re-engineers public polls to add more Republicans to their samples, and which gives Republican Mitt Romney a wide lead.

Some Romney supporters have long complained that public polls suggest higher Democratic turnout, and lower Republican turnout, than they think is likely this year. Pollsters have replied that their samples are dictated by what poll respondents themselves say.

Dean Chambers created the site, retooling national polling data this July after reading an ABC News/Washington Post poll that "just didn't look right." Looking at the internal data, Chambers saw that the polling unit had sampled more Democrats than Republicans.

"There's no way they can justify that sample," Chambers, 44, told BuzzFeed.

Since July, Chambers has re-weighted national polling data from organizations like Gallup, ARG, and the three networks, to fit the Rasmussen Reports partisan trends. Chambers has published 30 "unskewed" polls on his website and on, a national network that pays independent bloggers on a wide range of subject by traffic. In the last month, Chambers's tooled polls have Romney up by seven or more points.

The website gained attention Sunday night, when Texas Gov. Rick Perry tweeted the link with the note, "Always nice to get unfiltered or in this case 'unskewed' information." A link to the site was later posted on the Drudge Report and the PJ Tatler.

Chambers was unaware that Governor Perry had tweeted about his site, and had been wondering this morning what caused his spike in traffic.

The Unskewed Polling site — an arm of Chambers' network of six other "Q Star News" websites — is an independent "journalistic assignment that I took upon myself," he said.

Chambers said he suspects that big polling shops are intentionally over-sampling Democrats to help get the President re-elected.

Randy Johnson

Bill said...

I agree with item #1 but hope Dick is right. I found #2 interesting and read the news letter. I laughed my ass off reading #3.

Anonymous said...

The Romney campaign is so dead the Mormon church is baptizing it.

Bill said...

The most accurated polling organization in 2008 was Rasmusson and they have it tied nation wide. But, I don't understand why the media, generally smart people, would be in the bag for O when the economy sucks and he's a joke around the world so, maybe Rasmusson has it all wrong this year and the 47% have turned into 51%.

Anonymous said...

Please provide data demonstrating Rasmussen as "The most accurate polling organization in 2008." By what measure(s)was that designation established?

Randy Johnson

Bill said...

polls ranked

Erin O'Brien said...

From your link, Bill:

The Pew Research Center and Rasmussen Reports were the most accurate in predicting the results of the 2008 election ...

Well then, dig this:

Much-awaited Pew Research poll finds Obama a whopping 8 percent ahead.

All you silly righties need to stop whining and blaming everyone for everything and figure out what's wrong with your party.

Bill said...

I'm not whining. Just trying to figure out if any of the polls really mean anything. I'm thinking nothing has improved since 2010 and you probably remember what happened then. Just a couple of senate seats and...... BAM!

Anonymous said...

The polls, reporters, political writers - they all believed Dewey was going to win by a landslide. On September 9, 1948, Elmo Roper was so confident of a Dewey win that he announced there would be no further Roper Polls on this election. Roper said, "My whole inclination is to predict the election of Thomas E. Dewey by a heavy margin and devote my time and efforts to other things.

Anonymous said...

"I'm thinking nothing has improved since 2010..."-Bill

Wrong again. The GOP is running away from the Tea Party like a wild animal from a fire. Sarah Who?


Bill said...

If that's true, that the GOP is running away from the Tea Party, then, they deserve to get their ass kicked. I think the Tea Party voters are still there and will show up in a major way.

Anonymous said...

News reports suggest that the polls which report the best results for the GOP, ie Rasmussen and Gallup, are polls in which landline-owners only are sampled.

Obsolescent methods will yield obsolescent results.


Cleveland Bob said...

I had no idea that Mike Rowe had shilled for QVC. Actors are such low rent whores.

Erin O'Brien said...

From Rasmussen's site:

While we do not currently call cell phones directly when conducting our surveys, to reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview a demographically diverse panel. Just like our telephone surveys, respondents for this approach are selected on a random basis to insure the reliability of the sample. As a result, you cannot sign up to participate.

Erin O'Brien said...

From Gallup's site:

Gallup includes cell phones in each national Gallup poll. Gallup has been including cell phone-only households in all national telephone Gallup polls since January 2008. Further, cell phone-only households are now as likely to fall into national Gallup polls samples as those living in traditional landline households.

Erin O'Brien said...

Oh and one more thing: I watched "The O'Reilly Factor" last night.

The old fat rich white guys are pretty upset about current poll data. Carl Rove held up a white board with scribbles on it and then the very same Dick Morris I quoted in this post talked about how all the polls that show Obama ahead weigh Latinos and African Americans more than they should.

O'Reilly did not have any guests from these suspect polling organizations on the show to address Morris's claims. He did, however, have a Rasmussen guy on (the old fat rich white guys like Rasmussen). He said a bunch of stuff I can't remember, but the gist of the show was that the race is a virtual dead heat, so there's a little mini update in this here conservative update.

Anonymous said...

"We cain't have nothing nice around here. Damn coloreds always screw it up."

Jeff Davis Polling Service

Bill said...

If you're right, and the polls are right, we're in for another 4 years of fat, rich, white guys, whining. Others who might be whining (or crying): unemployed (who want to work), sick people waiting in line for a doctor, small business people, middle class workers, people who need to sell their house.

It's also occured to me that, if the President wins, cable news channels will probably go out of business since the boogey man will have been defeated.

Yabu said...

You know, Obama is not the cure, neither is Romney. We're in deep trouble regardless of who is elected. Everyone should be thinking about their Plan B. This is gonna get a lot worse. This is the dirtiest election I've ever seen, and the media is responsible for most of it. I don't believe you can trust any polls.

The sad fact is, it comes down to money, not values or convictions.

This is one big mess.

Anonymous said...

"This is the dirtiest election I've ever seen, and the media is responsible for most of it. I don't believe you can trust any polls."
I am Yabu and I approved this message.
Interesting how media can modify mathematical principles...Anyway, in the interest of equal time...Given the NFL figured out which side their bread was buttered on and ended the Ref Lockout those that are so inclined should trip on over and spend a few minutes catching up on the American Airlines debacle if you want to see naked capitalism at it's finest. (Suspect this is just a George Soros staged event in his quest for world domination.)

Randy Johnson

VideoDude said...

The Teapublicns are just backstopping their story when Pres. Obama is re-elected on November 6. Because they will never believe that it is because of they're lies, hate and bigotry.

As far as polls, there is only one poll that counts on November 6.

I think Mitt is a much bigger joke around the world than Pres. Obama. Just review his last offshore trip.

The real joke is on the Tea-GOP. They refuse to see just how lame and ignorant their leaders are!

Erin O'Brien said...

As far as polls, there is only one poll that counts on November 6.

Amen to that.

Erin O'Brien said...

How the GOP alienated the black vote.

The best summary I've read on the GOP's not-so-subtle racism and how it's cost the party virtually every African American vote.

Bill said...